A very insightful post by Dare Obasanjo (a fellow Nigerian).
In his post, reminiscent of the book that he cites, Crossing the Chasm, he lays out a few points why targeting and solving problems for the early adopter crowd does not ensure success, nor mainstream adoption.
First, let’s define the audiences.
Early Adopters are risk takers who actually like to try new things.
Pragmatists might be willing to use new technology, if it’s the only way to get their problem solved.
Conservatives dislike new technology and try to avoid it.
Laggards pride themselves on the fact that they are the last to try anything new.
This drawing reflects the fact that there is no smooth or logical transition between the Early Adopters and the Pragmatists. In between the Early Adopters and the Pragmatists there is a chasm. To successfully sell your product to the Pragmatists, you must “cross the chasm
Some technology trends that haven’t reached mainstream adoption:
*Blog Search: A few years ago, blog search engines were all the rage. You had people like Marc Cuban talking up IceRocket and Robert Scoble harranguing Web search companies to build dedicated blog search engines. Since then the products in that space have either given up the ghost (e.g. PubSub, Feedster), turned out to be irrelevant (e.g. Technorati, IceRocket) or were sidelined (e.g. Google Blog Search, Yahoo! Blog Search). The problem with this product category is that except for journalists, marketers and ego surfing A-list bloggers there aren’t many people who need a specialized feature set around searching blogs.
Social bookmarking: Although del.icio.us popularized a number of “Web 2.0″ trends such as tagging, REST APIs and adding social features to a previously individual task, it has never really taken off as a mainstream product. According to the former VC behind the service it seems to have peaked at 2 million unique visitors last year and is now seeing about half that number of unique users. Compare that to Yahoo! bookmarks which was seeing 20 million active users a year and a half ago.
RSS Readers: I’ve lost track of all of the this is the year RSS goes mainstream articles I’ve read over the past few years. Although RSS has turned out to be a key technology which powers a number of interesting functionality behind the scenes (e.g. podcasting) actually subscribing and reading news feeds in an RSS reader has not become a mainstream activity of Web users. When you think about it, it is kind of obvious. The problem an RSS reader solves is “I read so many blogs and news sites on daily basis, I need a tool to help me keep them all straight”. How many people who aren’t enthusiastic early adopters (i) have this problem and (ii) think they need a tool to deal with it?
Here’s an excerpt reminiscent of what I wrote in my post, Blogger v. Reality: Crossing the Chasm:
1. Just because you wish something to be true, does not make it so.
If you think I’m referring to the great twitter debate, it’s probably because I am. (Don’t know what Twitter is?)
However the one overriding theme is that all of these recent entrants is that they solve problems that everyone [or at least a large section of the populace] has. Everyone likes to communicate with their social circle. Everyone likes watching funny videos and looking at couple pics. Everyone wants to find information about topics they interested in or find out what’s going on around them. Everybody wants to get laid.
If you are a Web 2.0 company in today’s Web you really need to ask yourselves, “Are we solving a problem that everybody has or are we building a product for Robert Scoble?”
That also reminds me of a famed Josh Kopelman quote:
Too many companies are targeting an audience (Techcrunch circa May 2006) of 53,651.
